Do gold prices go up or down in a recession?

Precious metals, such as gold or silver, tend to perform well during market slowdown. But since demand for these types of commodities often increases during recessions, prices tend to rise too high. The main reason why gold is more resilient during stock market crashes is due to correlation. One goes up when the other goes down.

A rise in gold prices is not unusual during a recession. Gold prices are actually a good indicator of the current state of economic health in the United States. When the economy is healthy, options such as stocks, real estate and bonds are considered more profitable investments, which keep gold prices low. To help answer the questions posed above, I looked at past stock market declines and measured the performance of gold and silver during each of them to see if there are any historical trends.

The table below shows the eight biggest falls in the S%26P 500 since 1976 and how gold and silver prices responded to each one. It's not always easy to predict whether stocks will fall off a cliff. And what happens if they don't? Or what happens if the market remains stable for a long period of time? You might think this is unlikely, given the amount of risks inherent in our current economic, financial and monetary systems. But look at the 1970s, it had three recessions, an oil embargo, interest rates that reached 20 percent, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

This is how S%26P performed, along with the performance of gold. Stock brokers sometimes point to the 100-year chart of the stock market and show that it always recovers eventually and heads upwards, even after big dips. However, what they don't show is how long it takes to recover after taking inflation into account. In general terms, gold rises during recessionary economic cycles.

However, it is important to realize that this trend is not a guarantee. Factors such as panic buying, government stimulus, and central bank quantitative easing (QE) may push prices higher, but other factors may promote correction. Possible drivers of bearish price action include a sudden increase in bullion supply or a shift to aggressive monetary policy. Erb, from the National Bureau of Economic Research, and Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke University's Fuqua Business School, have studied the price of gold in relation to several factors.

But is this coverage maintained during stock market crashes? Knowing what effect a market crash will have and the subsequent collapse of the dollar in silver and gold is vital for making investment decisions from time to time, deciding what course to take in the event of a major recession or depression. As the son of an award-winning gold digger, with family-owned mining claims in California, Arizona and Nevada, Jeff has deep roots in the industry. As an investment, gold can preserve asset value and encourage investors looking to diversify to avoid investing in riskier stocks. Due to gold price trends and its popularity throughout history, its long-term stability and its steadily rising value, many experts recommend buying gold as part of a solid allocation strategy.

Some forces affect the supply of gold in the broader market, and gold is a global commodity market, such as oil or coffee. Experts suggest that when stock market prospects seem bleak, buying gold is fiscally responsible in preparation for potentially impending financial difficulties. A key factor in the disastrous Great Depression was the Federal Reserve's persistence in maintaining the gold standard within the US economy, despite a group of European countries that had decided to denounce the system. The only major sale of gold (-46 percent in the early 1980s) occurred just after the biggest gold bull market in history.

Arguably, the most infamous recession in modern history, the Great Depression of the 1920s and 1930s, is an early indicator of the nature of the rise in the price of gold during economic turmoil. Because of the economic uncertainty caused by a recession, more and more people are turning to gold as a “safe” investment option. We need to allow the possibility of this happening again and for citizens to be attracted to gold for reasons unrelated to the performance of S%26P. Gold is a commodity that is not linked to anything else; in small doses, it is a good diversification element for a portfolio.

So if inflation isn't driving the price, is it fear? Undoubtedly, in times of economic crisis, investors are flocking to gold. . .

Angelia Panyko
Angelia Panyko

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